Futures Oil

Thursday 18 March 2010

Prices of Crude Oil: Crude Future

Prices of Crude Oil ticked higher over the next half decade leading up to the Iranian Revolution. The Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was over thrown and essentially replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini at the end of 1979. The year following this executive changed, included the Iranian Hostage Crisis and concluded with the commencement of the Iran-Iraq war. Over that time, the crude market price increased by 2.5x that was seen at the beginning of the Iranian Revolution. Over all, the Oil Prices rose approximately 1,200% in the 8 years from 1973-1981. That is why we can conclude that in the history of the Crude Future this rally was the result of the two greatest intermediate term price rallies.

Crude Future: Markets & Prices

Having a look at reviewing record of Crude Oil Price, you do not have to waste your time looking to far back into history in order to find the greatest nominal price move in history. There was a change in the Prices of Crude Oil; The Prices of Crude Oil rally actually stemmed from the last time Crude Future traded under $10/barrel. For over the next nine years, the Price of Oil fluctuated over 1,400% before topping out at $145/barrel in 2008. During the 18 months from January 2007 to July of 2008, the most impressive stage or phase of this rally took place. “The Crude Oil Market hit an intraday high of $147.27 and a closing high of $145.29 on July 11 and July 3 respectively; these broke and currently hold record intraday and closing figures. The rally from approximately $50/barrel in Jan. 2007 to the closing highs in July equated to 190% rally. One of the fundamentals that influenced the timing of this rally was a 1.7 million barrel per day two phase production cut by OPEC. The cuts were in Nov. 2006 (1.2 mb/day cut) and Feb. 2007 (500 tb/day cut). In looking back at other noteworthy price runs, OPEC member nations seem to have a driving influence on the volatility.”

The Crude Oil Market rally that climaxed in 2008 was an amazing occurrence that will be talked about for some time to come, but the move is relative in comparison to other historic rallies on a percentage basis. These other pricing events went down within the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s. In fact, prior to 1973, the Price of Crude Oil pretty much was below $5/barrel except during a rally in the 1860s. In October of 1973, OPEC implemented and put an oil embargo on the U.S. and other European nations who helped Israeli with supply and military support during the Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli conflict. These supplies were important and necessary for Israel to hold off the Egyptian and Syrian offensives. In March of 1974, the embargo was repealed, but not until Prices of Oil had gone through the greatest percentage move to this date. In that 5 month period, Oil Prices quadrupled from $3/barrel to $12/barrel.

Thursday 4 March 2010

Crude Oil Trades Near $81 After Rising on Economic Optimism

According to Bloomberg, "Crude Oil traded near $81 a barrel after rising yesterday as reports showed improvement in the U.S. job market and refineries operated at the highest level since October in the world’s biggest energy consumer."

Oil climbed to a seven-week high yesterday as service industries in the U.S. accelerated in February more than anticipated, indicating the economic expansion may soon create jobs following the worst employment slump in the post-World War II era. Inventories of crude oil climbed 4.03 million barrels and refinery utilization increased 0.7 percentage point in the U.S. last week, according to the Energy Department.

Crude Future for April delivery traded at $80.83 a barrel, down 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:42 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract increased $1.19, or 1.5 percent, to $80.87, the highest settlement since Jan. 11.

Oil also advanced as the dollar weakened, increasing the investment appeal of commodities. The currency rose after Greece approved an additional 4.8 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of deficit cuts. The dollar traded at $1.3690 per euro at 11:18 a.m. Sydney time, from $1.3697 yesterday...
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Source: CNBC
Source: Bloomberg